Impact threat analysis update completed for 1950 DA - Impact threat analysis update completed for 1950 DA
(29075) 1950 DA is a kilometre-size near-Earth asteroid discovered on 22 February 1950, observed at that time for 18 days and then lost for 50 years. In January 2001, thanks to an identification with another asteroid discovered in December 2000, (29075) 1950 DA was recovered and observed again.
After collecting high-precision radar measurements in March 2001, a potential impact on 16 March 2880 was detected (see this reference). An impact probability as large as 1 in 300 was computed at that time, corresponding to a maximum Palermo Scale of +0.17.
The estimated impact probability was updated several times since then, last time in 2015 when it reached a value of about 1 in 8000, with a Palermo Scale of about -1.4.
After 6 years, and in agreement with JPL’s Sentry and NEODyS, ESA’s NEOCC decided to update the (29075) 1950 DA risk information by performing the risk assessment taking into account all the measurements available until December 2021. The resulting estimated impact probability in 2880 is approximately 1 in 50 000, and the Palermo Scale value is now about -2.
Ecliptic projection of the trajectory of (29075) 1950 DA. Credit: ESA / PDO